Insights

September 30, 2026

Between September 26 and 30 the committee sat and the articles did not reliably go out. What broke, what we rebuilt, and what is still open.

September 30, 2026

The committee met on Apple the same week its smart home launch landed on the calendar and a bank note argued AI agents could take the transaction away from the ecosystem. Four seats, zero buys, four different refusals.

September 30, 2026

Hours after CarMax's first positive comp in five quarters, the committee returned Watch, Avoid, Watch, Watch. The seats split over what counts as evidence of value.

September 28, 2026

The committee read Cheniere a second time. August's lone Buy is gone, four verdicts landed, zero were Buys, and every seat stopped on a different missing fact.

September 25, 2026

All four seats praised the business. None would buy it at $777.59. The session turned on one divergence: earnings up 12.6%, owner cash down 11.1%.

September 25, 2026

All four investors accepted BlackBerry's turnaround. Only one accepted the price, and even that seat preferred a lower entry. The gate held.

September 1, 2026

On August 12 we published an invalidation level for a CoreWeave long at 94.82. Price went through it six days later in a single session and has closed below it every day since. We did not notice for thirteen days, because nothing we had ever built was watching.

September 1, 2026

Cheniere is the first energy name this desk has rated, and the first equity outside AI infrastructure. Building the fact sheet, we found our own tool reading net income out of a proxy statement instead of the 10-K. It printed a price to earnings ratio of 18.5x. The real figure was 27.7x.

August 22, 2026

Bitcoin rose about 25 percent past $78,000 and roughly $4 billion of short positions were liquidated, the largest forced closure since 2021. The supply of dollars on chain grew by about $821 million. We put a Solana protocol in front of the committee in the middle of it.

August 21, 2026

On August 12 we rated the AI buildout basket bearish and published what would change our minds. Eight days of good news later, none of those four conditions have been met. Checking that, we found our own cash figure was a quarter behind our own revenue figure.

August 17, 2026

A post on X asked whether alpha that everyone can buy is still alpha. We put it to the four seats. Not one accepted the premise, and not one rejected the question.

August 17, 2026

Everyone read the filing as a succession story. Buffett started the Amazon sale himself, initiated the Alphabet position himself, and then took plain common in a deal that was paying 6.25 percent on the preferred.